Bonus conversion · Explainer
Hedging bets: how the math works
Hedging bets means placing a second bet on the other outcome so your possible results sit closer together. The arithmetic is short, and a hedge bet calculator is that arithmetic with boxes to fill in. This guide shows the formula, worked tables for a $100 bonus bet, and the cases where a hedge helps or only adds cost. It explains a promotion you already qualify for. It does not tell you to bet. You need to be 21 or older in most states and located where the sportsbook is licensed.
THE SHORT ANSWER
Hedging a bet means placing a second bet on the other outcome so your results land closer together. With a $100 bonus bet at +200 and a $142.86 cash bet on the other side at -250, either result leaves about $57.14: about the same result either way, before voids, limits and fees. A hedge narrows outcomes. It does not remove risk, and a bonus bet is not cash.
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How a bonus bet hedge works
| Bonus bet odds | Other side odds | Cash hedge stake | If bonus side wins | If other side wins | Share of the bonus kept |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.80 (-125) | 2.05 (+105) | $39.02 | $40.98 | $40.97 | 41.0% |
| 2.10 (+110) | 1.80 (-125) | $61.11 | $48.89 | $48.89 | 48.9% |
| 3.00 (+200) | 1.40 (-250) | $142.86 | $57.14 | $57.14 | 57.1% |
| 5.00 (+400) | 1.20 (-500) | $333.33 | $66.67 | $66.67 | 66.7% |
Calculated with the same formula as doddo's free bet calculator, using decimal odds with American odds in brackets. These are example prices with a normal sportsbook margin on both sides, not live quotes. Each result is cash after the hedge; the bonus bet's own stake is never returned. A cent of difference between the two results comes from rounding the hedge stake to whole cents.
What does hedging bets mean?
Hedging bets means covering a bet you hold, or one you are about to place, with a bet on the opposite outcome. If the first bet wins, the second loses, and the other way round. Sized well, the two results end up close together. You give up the biggest possible win and the biggest possible loss.
A hedge works differently on a cash bet and on a bonus bet. A cash bet's stake comes back when it wins. A bonus bet is sportsbook credit you can wager but not withdraw, and when it wins you get the winnings only, according to DraftKings' and FanDuel's help centers. That one rule is why a bonus bet hedge can leave a cash result above zero while a cash bet hedge usually leaves a small loss. Our bonus bets guide covers each sportsbook's bonus bet rules. This guide covers the hedge math.
How does a hedge bet calculator work?
A hedge bet calculator solves for one number: how much cash to put on the other side so both results match. With decimal odds, the hedge stake for a bonus bet is the bonus amount × (bonus odds − 1) ÷ hedge odds. The result if the bonus side wins is the bonus winnings minus the hedge stake. The result if the other side wins is the hedge stake × (hedge odds − 1). Setting those two results equal gives the formula.
Decimal odds are 1 plus the profit on a $1 bet, so +200 is 1 + 200 ÷ 100 = 3.00 and -250 is 1 + 100 ÷ 250 = 1.40. The odds converter does this for any price. doddo's free bet calculator uses the formula above for one bonus bet, and every bonus bet number on this page was computed the same way.
- Bonus bet: $100 at +200, which is 3.00. A win pays $200 in winnings. The $100 stake is not returned.
- Other side: -250 at another sportsbook, which is 1.40.
- Hedge stake: 100 × (3.00 − 1) ÷ 1.40 = $142.86 in cash.
- If the bonus side wins: $200 − $142.86 = $57.14.
- If the other side wins: $142.86 × (1.40 − 1) = $57.14, and the bonus bet is gone.
Result for a $100 bonus bet at +200, with and without a hedge
How much of a bonus bet does a hedge keep at different odds?
The table at the top of this page uses a $100 bonus bet. The share you keep rises with the bonus bet's odds: 41.0% at 1.80, 48.9% at 2.10, 57.1% at 3.00 and 66.7% at 5.00. The cash you need rises faster. A $100 bonus bet at 3.00 needs a $142.86 hedge, and at 5.00 it needs $333.33. A higher share comes with a much larger cash commitment, and the price of the other side matters as much as the bonus bet's own odds. The bonus bets guide shows the same pattern for a $50 bonus bet.
Is it worth hedging a cash bet?
Usually not at the same prices. A cash bet's stake comes back when it wins, so the formula changes: hedge stake = original stake × original odds ÷ hedge odds. Bet $100 at +200 (3.00), cover it with the other side at -250 (1.40), and you need $214.29. Both results end about $14 below zero. That loss is the sportsbook's margin, paid on both sides. The same prices on a bonus bet leave $57.14 because the bonus stake was never your cash.
| $100 cash bet | $100 bonus bet | |
|---|---|---|
| Winnings if the bet wins at +200 | $200 | $200 |
| Stake returned if it wins | Yes, $100 | No |
| Cash hedge stake at -250 | $214.29 | $142.86 |
| Hedged result if the first bet wins | -$14.29 | $57.14 |
| Hedged result if the other side wins | -$14.28 | $57.14 |
| No hedge, first bet wins | $200 | $200 |
| No hedge, first bet loses | -$100 | $0 |
Net cash result after the hedge. A cent of difference between the two hedged results comes from rounding the hedge stake to whole cents. Example prices, not live quotes.
The same hedge on a cash bet and on a bonus bet
When does a cash hedge come out ahead?
Only when the price of the other side has moved in your favor since your first bet. The table covers the same $100 bet at +200 with the other side at four later prices. At -200 the hedge breaks even. At -160 it leaves a gain of about $15. At -400, where your first bet now looks less likely, it leaves a $40 loss either way.
| Other side now | Cash hedge stake | If your first bet wins | If the hedge wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25 (-400) | $240.00 | -$40.00 | -$40.00 |
| 1.40 (-250) | $214.29 | -$14.29 | -$14.28 |
| 1.50 (-200) | $200.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 1.625 (-160) | $184.62 | $15.38 | $15.39 |
Net cash result after the hedge, including the first bet's stake. Example prices. A cent of difference comes from rounding the hedge stake to whole cents.
When does hedging a bonus bet make sense?
A hedge changes how much risk you take. It does not improve the odds. It trades the bonus bet's chance of a bigger payout for a smaller, steadier cash result, and on average that trade costs something. Remove the sportsbook's margin from the two example prices so the chances add to 100%, and call those the true chances. The $100 bonus bet at +200 is then worth about $63.64 on average with no hedge and $57.14 with one. The hedge gives up about $6.50 to remove the swing between $200 and $0. That is a modeled estimate, not a forecast.
A hedge is easiest to defend in these situations:
- The bonus bet is close to expiring and you would rather have a cash result than a chance of nothing. FanDuel says its bonus bets expire in 7 days unless otherwise stated.
- The market has exactly two outcomes, such as a moneyline that cannot end in a draw.
- You can fund the cash side. The hedge stake was $142.86 for a $100 bonus bet at +200 and $333.33 at +400.
- Another sportsbook offers a normal price on the other side, because the margin in that price decides how much of the bonus you keep.
When does hedging only add cost?
A hedge pays the margin on the cash side every time. It adds cost, or stops working, in these cases:
- Hedging a cash bet at unchanged prices. The $100 example above ends about $14 below zero either way.
- A hedge stake bigger than you would put at risk. The cash side is real money, and one of the two bets loses.
- Markets that can push. DraftKings returns a bonus bet after a push or a void. FanDuel returns it after a void but not after a push, so a push there costs you the bonus bet.
- A bet that is only partly accepted or rejected. DraftKings' Massachusetts house rules say it can refuse all or part of any bet, which can leave the other side larger than needed.
- Price moves. If either price changes before both bets are accepted, the two results no longer match.
- Cash out as an exit. DraftKings' Massachusetts house rules do not allow cash out on bonus bets.
- Taxes. The IRS says gambling winnings are fully taxable and losses can be deducted only if you itemize, and only up to your winnings. From 2026 the deduction is 90% of your losses, per the IRS's Form W-2G instructions, so a hedge that breaks even can still leave taxable income. A hedge puts a win on one side and a loss on the other.
How to hedge a bet, step by step
The steps are the same for a cash bet and a bonus bet. Only the formula differs.
- Choose a market with exactly two outcomes and note the price of each side at the sportsbooks you can use.
- Convert both prices to decimal odds. The odds converter turns -250 into 1.40.
- Enter your stake and both decimal prices: in the free bet calculator for a bonus bet, or the hedge calculator for a cash bet you placed.
- Recheck both prices and your balances right before you bet.
- Confirm that each bet was accepted in full at the price you used. A partial or rejected bet changes the math.
How can doddo help with hedging a bonus bet?
The free bet calculator works out the cash hedge and both results for one bonus bet at a time. In the doddo app, a bonus conversion plan keeps the qualifying cash bet separate from the bonus bet, asks for your cash budget and shows both settled results before you place anything. doddo does not place bets or ask for sportsbook passwords, and new accounts are on a waitlist right now. Bonus bets are not cash, and a hedge can still lose money to voids, limits and fees. Our responsible gaming page links to independent support.
Frequently asked questions
What does it mean to hedge a bet?
It means placing a bet on the opposite outcome of a bet you hold, or one you are about to place, so your possible results end up closer together. It narrows the range of outcomes. It does not remove risk.
How do you calculate a hedge bet?
With decimal odds, a bonus bet hedge stake is the bonus amount × (bonus odds − 1) ÷ hedge odds. For a cash bet it is the original stake × original odds ÷ hedge odds. A $100 bonus bet at 3.00 hedged at 1.40 needs $142.86.
Is hedging a bet worth it?
It depends on whether you prefer a steadier result. On average a hedge gives up the sportsbook's margin on the cash side, about $6.50 in the $100 bonus bet example. A cash bet hedged at unchanged prices ends about $14 below zero either way, so it helps only after the price has moved your way.
Can you hedge a bonus bet?
Yes. The bonus bet goes on one side and cash goes on the other, usually at a different sportsbook. Because the bonus stake is not returned, a $100 bonus bet at +200 hedged at -250 leaves about $57.14 either way, before voids, limits and fees.
Does a hedge remove all risk?
No. Rejected or partial bets, price moves, voids, pushes and limits can leave the two sides unmatched. At FanDuel a pushed bonus bet is not returned, and DraftKings' Massachusetts house rules let it refuse all or part of any bet.
Are hedged winnings taxable?
The IRS says gambling winnings are fully taxable and must be reported, and losses can be deducted only if you itemize, up to your winnings. For tax years beginning after December 31, 2025, only 90% of losses can be deducted. Ask a tax professional how a hedge with a win on one side and a loss on the other is treated.
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